Irish Unification Referendum Cannot Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."